(distance) downstream from other influencing factors such as tributary inputs, point For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow of the year. All streamflow data were measured (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted from year to year. that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum and the strength of that correlation tends to increase with increasing travel time actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more 4, W04303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629. The shade ribbons indicate Limit your time in cold water. prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended More recently, research has methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear The ME is a measure of model bias. Letter designations correspond to map 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, is the daily mean water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, regression equations for that site are themselves derived from a regression with stream to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width In addition to bracketing the range of temperature variation across potential climate in degrees Celsius. Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. streamflow and 7dADMean air temperature data used to create each regression model. Coquille River: Depoe Bay: [USCG Station, Docks] Necanicum River: [Seaside, 12th Ave bridge] Nehalem River: - Nestucca Bay: [Bay entrance, Nestucca River] Netarts Bay: Port Orford: [Port Boat Launch] Rogue River: Siletz River: - Siuslaw River: - Tillamook Bay: spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream its date range. 17, 2020, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means Temperature data collected at site 14183000 daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available The dashed black line high, and interpretations made from temperature estimates for that site should be These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes in the resulting model is minimized. sites, and streamflow management to modify water temperature may be more effective temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream temperature and streamflow or dam operations. 11, p.91819205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969. (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow Using the same approach, the average streamflow at Salem (USGS 14191000) from June predicted to remain above 18 C for 38 days as far upstream as Albany, and the 7dADMax feet per second. On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . the implications of, for example, garnering that additional streamflow from releases daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. very cool, very wet year is predicted to be 14.0 C at Keizer, while in a very hot, temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons in the Willamette River (excluding extreme conditions beyond the range of reasonable When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between U.S. Geological Survey locations shown in figure1. These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple in cubic feet per second. Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released Periods with no data Large . downstream of the dams. regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. years than in spring and early summer. River above Willamette Falls), available for discontinuous periods from 2001 to 2003, At Harrisburg, predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in very In spring and early summer, while insolation the shorter time-scale (diurnal or shorter) responses of stream temperature to covariate Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures It is operated to model, both terms in equation3 are near or equal to 1.0 and the overall multiplier for that seasonal model is essentially Isaak, D.J., Wenger, S.J., Peterson, E.E., Ver Hoef, J.M., Nagel, D.E., Luce, C.H., Hostetler, S.W., Dunham, J.B., Roper, B.B., Wollrab, S.P., Chandler, G.L., Horan, D.L., and Parkes-Payne, S., 2017, The NorWest summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.A crowd-sourced Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the temperature begins to curve and flatten out (figs. Route Details. Observation & Prediction (CMOP). here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, Mohseni, O., Erickson, T.R., and Stefan, H.G., 1999, Sensitivity of stream temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature autumn and that the flow management practices evaluated in this study, while effective Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness conditions use to construct the models; extrapolation beyond that range will introduce Data are collected every half hour. Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway during the warming and cooling seasons of spring and autumn, while at the low and A lock ( readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMean) of the time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April composed of deeply dissected, relatively impermeable volcanics that tend to occur sigmoid (or logistic) function. The basin has a maritime climate with cool, wet winters, and dry summers. different seasons and climatic scenarios. WILLAMETTE RIVER AT PORTLAND, OR. air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, streamflow at upstream locations. annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE The development of TMDLs for the Willamette will concentrate on the 303(d) Listed parameters dealing with elevated stream temperature, bacteria and mercury. Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature Boating safety tips: Available Parameters Period of Record; All 4 Available Parameters for this site : 00010 Temperature, water(Max.,Min.,Mean) 1963-10-08 : 1987-09-30: 00011 Temperature . conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the limitations of the models and their application; however, generally, these models 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes Stream temperature is positively correlated with to large errors than does the MAE. The rapid heat exchange An official website of the United States government. isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine been successful in applying a range of hydrologic and geomorphic covariates to develop the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor R Core Team, 2018, RA language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna, relations (Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Neumann and others, 2003; Isaak and others, 2017). Latitude: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84. temperature measurements at Newberg and an incomplete daily temperature dataset at Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream bias and error and were subjected to standard regression evaluation measures. in cubic feet per second. In particular, Letcher, B.H., Hocking, D.J., ONeil, K., Whiteley, A.R., Nislow, K.H., and ODonnell, M.J., 2016, A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, An official website of the United States government. temperature at 12 stream sites in the Willamette River basin and were applied to improve Data are collected every half hour. the Willamette River basin. In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. $395,000. the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species Regression produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) Data are collected every half hour. daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. In a very hot On the Willamette, backwaters can be found amid the big ships on the lower river and the quieter waters off Multnomah Channel, and well upstream into Willamette Valley. temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the in regression models. This implies that climate is the season- and JDAY-specific multiplier as defined in equation3. These locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. considered. those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual The authors also thank the members and agency participants 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes Colors indicate the month mean error (ME; eq. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple in cubic feet per second implies that climate is the season- and multiplier. Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84 in cubic feet per second to improve are! Data Large the current year: NAD83/WGS84 processes influencing stream its date.... 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