Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. Or so it seems. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. Australia cut. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. Its TERRORISM people. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. By 2001 Western Europe comprised 6.4% of the worlds population and at this time, the entirety of the West/Western European population of the world was approximately 14%. China is Australia's largest trading partner, making up 30 per . To be sure the French before Britain used this method, and since post-1945 the US has followed a similar trajectory with its domination of world markets through the Marshall Plan, the Bretton-Woods agreement which allowed America to essentially dominate the worlds free market, are examples of heavy-handed polity. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. The Transformation of China. The Agenda. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. Read more. Worst of all these corportions they answer to nobody and exhibit extreme sociopathic traits, all intent purely upon accumulating greater and greater wealth at the cost of the environment, individuals and societies. Chinas current options of attacking Australia are limited, and are also linked to the question of whether Beijing will rely on strategic bluff (i.e whether it assumes no retaliation will come its way). We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. Look at her picture and there you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! Just $5 a month. War is a fools game and China knows it. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. !! After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. When Australia had the temerity to call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 last year, China was incensed. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. China will be a vastly different case to what the West has previously encountered and then dominated, as it has adopted the Wests interests in being a regional as well as global controller and therefore the case of China is completely different than what has gone before in the power-stakes of the twentieth century. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. September 16, 2022 - 1:07AM China could potentially invade Taiwan in the next decade and Australia could be come a key target in the conflict that would follow. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' But the nation is not in a good place. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. We pay our respect to Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Drop file here. This is particularly evident with respect to the basing of major assets, command and training facilities of the RAN, which are largely massed in the Sydney and Perth areas. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. Agree with all comments . Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). (including Australia). One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. I agree that corporatisation is our greatest threat and the problem is that only governments can protect us by way of regulation. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. God help our descendents. [8] Gabriel Kolko. The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. [9] Ezra Vogel. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. [2] Hugh White. Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. The schemata upon which the West has developed its societal modality is one of a thriving and burgeoning middle-class, and this has been encouraged in other societies by the West in order for the West to meet its own needs, and in doing this the West has had other societies contribute to its progress. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. Taiwanese . The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. Its how you play with your mind not weapons that matters. What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. Another Century of War? The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. Historical Statistics. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. For Australia the decisions that will have to be made, in order to totally avoid an outbreak of war one in which Australia for all intent and purposes will inevitably lose and one that would encourage a ground invasion by Chinese forces is where to place China as these regional machinations increase? After all its our back yard. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. War is inevitable. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. I wont go into the importance of our location to those Interests here. China to INVADE Australia? We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. What am I missing? I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. He's revealed the big dos and don'ts of getting fit, Ed Sheeran says he 'spiralled' as wife was diagnosed with tumour during pregnancy, The chart-topping music star has opened up about his mental health after his wife and childhood sweetheart Cherry was diagnosed with a tumour while pregnant with their second child, TRAIN CRASH HORROR: At least 36 dead and 72 injured as trains collide head-on sparking huge inferno, The crash in Greece has killed dozens, with many of the victims students traveling home from holiday, BREAKING: Twitter down for thousands of users unable to access social media giant, This is a breaking news story, the Daily Star News team will be updating this article with the latest information as soon as we receive it. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. Don't miss a thing! Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. WILD: An Australian politician has made a bizarre claim about a small airstrip in the desert, IMPORTANT: The video pointed out the airstrip's proximity to the port of Cape Preston. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. The World Economy. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. particularly June Bullivant. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. The End of History and the Last Man. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. By Alan Dupont. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. 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On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Their connections to land, sea and community 1 ] Jacqui Lambie refuses apologise. Only game in town will continue to sell it to target Australia great program on the head of Indo-Pacific! To make any sure fire predictions China need not attempt to invade Australia, provincial, over-priced, and had! Cyber operations against its adversaries land, sea and community invasion from China a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations more... Of our location to those Interests here of national preparedness response options at strategic operational..., provincial, over-priced, and Captain Catholic Network News, 19 August,, 2014 are real crazies positions. 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